Keywords
electoral betting, economics
Abstract
This paper recounts an object lesson. Economists have been interested in the prediction ability of betting markets for decades. No doubt, volumes will be written about the successes and failures in forecasting the 2016 presidential election outcome. This paper makes an early report of a striking observation about betting markets on 2016’s election night: they began to shift from signaling a Clinton victory to signaling a Trump victory about 110 minutes prior to acknowledgment in major media that Clinton might even be in trouble.
Recommended Citation
Tufte, D. (2016). How Early Were Prediction Markets Able to Indicate Trump Won the Election?. Mountain Plains Journal of Business and Economics, 17(1). Retrieved from https://openspaces.unk.edu/mpjbt/vol17/iss1/2
